Oscar Predictions

Disclaimer:  I want The Social Network to win Best Film so much that I originally put it in my predictions.  But I fear the Academy will not see past the historical drama pull of The King's Speech so I have chosen that in the knowledge that if it wins I'll have got the prediction right, and if The Social Network claims the grand prize I'll be, quite frankly, bloody thrilled. 

 

Actor in a Leading Role

• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
• James Franco in “127 Hours”

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

Actress in a Leading Role

• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Animated Feature Film

• “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
• “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
• “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich 

Art Direction

• “Alice in Wonderland”
  Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
  Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
• “Inception”
  Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
• “The King's Speech”
  Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
• “True Grit”
  Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh 

 

Cinematography

• “Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
• “Inception” Wally Pfister
• “The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
• “The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
• “True Grit” Roger Deakins

 

Costume Design

• “Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
• “I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
• “The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan
• “The Tempest” Sandy Powell
• “True Grit” Mary Zophres

 

Directing

• “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
• “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
• “The Social Network” David Fincher
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

 

Documentary (Feature)

• “Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
• “Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
• “Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
• “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
• “Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

 

Documentary (Short Subject)

• “Killing in the Name” Jed Rothstein
• “Poster Girl” Sara Nesson and Mitchell W. Block
• “Strangers No More” Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
• “Sun Come Up” Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
• “The Warriors of Qiugang” Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

 

Film Editing

• “Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
• “The Fighter” Pamela Martin
• “The King's Speech” Tariq Anwar
• “127 Hours” Jon Harris
• “The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

 

Foreign Language Film

• “Biutiful” Mexico
• “Dogtooth” Greece
• “In a Better World” Denmark
• “Incendies” Canada
• “Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria

 

Makeup

• “Barney's Version” Adrien Morot
• “The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
• “The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

 

Music (Original Score)

• “How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
• “Inception” Hans Zimmer
• “The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat
• “127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
• “The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

 

Music (Original Song)

• “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
• “I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
• “If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
• “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Best Picture

• “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
• “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
• “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
• “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
• “The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
• “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
• “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
• “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
• “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
• “Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

 

Short Film (Animated)

• “Day & Night” Teddy Newton
• “The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
• “Let's Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
• “The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
• “Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois

 

Short Film (Live Action)

• “The Confession” Tanel Toom
• “The Crush” Michael Creagh
• “God of Love” Luke Matheny
• “Na Wewe” Ivan Goldschmidt
• “Wish 143” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

 

Sound Editing

• “Inception” Richard King
• “Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
• “Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
• “True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
• “Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger

 

Sound Mixing

• “Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
• “The King's Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
• “Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
• “The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
• “True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

 

Visual Effects

• “Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
• “Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell
• “Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
• “Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
• “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
• “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
• “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

 

(Original Screenplay)

• “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
• “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
  Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
• “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
• “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
• “The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Animal Kingdom

"You've done some bad things, sweetie."

A 2010 Australian crime drama, Animal has taken its sweet time getting to these shores but it turns out to be more than worth the wait.  David Michod has created a sophisticated, striking and genuinely tense film following the Cody family through the eyes of newly initiated member, J.  Thrown in with this close-knit collection of criminals and his optimistic, all-knowing Grandmother, J's life suddenly sinks to the underworld.
The film is claustrophobic - even the excellent Antony Partos score makes you feel as though you are underwater - and shocking in a brilliant and brave way, without the need for graphic and gratuitous violence.  This is not an angry crime film, thundering its way through the script at a terrific volume; it is quiet, subtle and really gets under your skin.  There is a constant sense of foreboding and the lengthy silences, use of slow-motion and generous, lugubrious pacing, means that it is a film which sits in the pit of your stomach and will settle there for quite a while after the final frame.

The cast deliver strong performances across the board but the stand out is Ben Mendelsohn.  His fugitive 'Pope' is underplayed to the point of slacker boredom yet he is one of the most menacing characters you are likely to meet this year.  An unremittingly emotionally violent man, 'Pope' is the kind of guy you would avoid even at his friendliest.  Yet his menace always lies just beneath the surface and Mendelsohn plays it to perfection.
Newcomer James Frecheville handles the central role with great control.  His J is described by Michod as 'our tour guide' and his place on the edge of the family unit is played with stillness - as though making himself as small as possible will keep him out of his uncle's way.  Jacki Weaver also excels as the matriarch of this unpalatable family.  A woman with Lady Macbeth tendencies, Weaver is bright, sunny and terrifying all at the same time.

Animal Kingdom hits the ground running with its first shot and though it is sedate and stately in its pacing, it is gripping, humorous and moving; a film that will stay with you long after the credits roll - 9/10

True Grit

"That didn't pan out."

Joel and Ethan Coen are reunited with The Dude himself for a remake of True Grit.  (As with Brighton Rock the directors have contended that they have returned to the original novel for a fresh look at the source material rather than directly remaking the first cinematic take).
Hailee Steinfeld plays Mattie Ross, an intelligent and determined 14 year old out to avenge her father's death.  Asking the sheriff for advice she is pointed in the direction of Rueben 'Rooster' Cogburn, and man of "true grit" - an ageing, belligerent Ranger seemingly as likely to take up the trail as to go sober.  But there is another Ranger already on the case and keen to get his man - La Boeuf (Matt Damon).
This unlikely trio are the centre of the film around whom other characters briefly flit around the periphery.  Due to this blink-and-you'll-miss-them nature, the film relies heavily of the chemistry and charisma of these three and, although each puts in a solid performance, there is nothing terribly remarkable about them.  That this should be the case despite their surroundings and situation is indicative of the overriding problem with the film.  It feels episodic, it is strangely bland - everything about the film feels solid but a bit lacklustre - and while the script offers a few moments of comedy, the rest of the film falls rather flat.  It just feels rather lightweight.
If there is one element of the script in particular which lends itself to humour it is the fact that, on first viewing, you will probably not catch it all.  While Mattie is well-spoken, clear and concise, Rooster is a verbose, opinionated drunk and almost completely unintelligible at times, and the addition of La Boeuf's acquired speech impediment only increases the difficulty.

Jeff Bridges is a committed, uncompromising Rooster, Hailee Steinfeld a confident and engaging Mattie, and Matt Damon provides some excellent broad comedy but I found the cameo performers more convincing and enjoyable.  Barry Pepper puts in a great turn as Lucky Ned Pepper, Josh Brolin undergoes a great vocal change as Tom Chaney and Domhnall Gleeson (Moon) probably delivers the most moving performance in the film.

The screenplay feels a little undecided.  Some of the language feels a little forced and while Rooster and La Boeuf get some good lines most go to the smaller roles and, as their appearances are brief, this leaves the script feeling a little bare.
The film looks glorious in places, Roger Deakins capturing the sparse American scenery wonderfully just as he did in No Country for Old Men, but there are a couple of moments where the editing choices seem quite strange and it doesn't look as classy as I expected.  There is something about it that feels a little slipshod, a little slung together and the natural, quirky stylings of the Coen brothers are replaced by an odd ambiguity.

I don't think True Grit will stay with me for long and I wouldn't rush to watch it again to remind myself - 7/10

The Fighter

"I want my family.  What's wrong with that?"

David O. Russell's third feature with  Mark Wahlberg follows a familiar path - underdog sportsman coming good - but the sport itself takes a back seat as the film focuses on the indisputably intriguing family life of its hero.
Micky Ward is a boxer inspired to fight by his older half brother, Dicky, a former Welterweight who has lost his way thanks to drug addiction.  Despite this Dicky trains him and their mother (irrepressibly played by Melissa Leo) manages his career.  As the film progresses Dicky's life spirals out further out of control and the family struggle to come to terms with their situation.

Let's start by saying that despite what you might be hearing, Mark Wahlberg is not really the leading man in this film.  Ok, so his may be the character around whom the situation revolves, but if you are looking for a leading performance, Christian Bale provides all of the entertainment and a great deal of the heart as well as seeming to command the greatest proportion of screen time.  This could be because a great deal of Wahlberg's scenes take place in the ring (where he puts in one hell of a performance) and when the story does focus on him he is left playing the situation rather than a fully formed character.  It is a pity that this is how it plays out as he does end up coming across as rather dull and anyone who's seen I Heart Huckabees or The Departed will know that he can fill a screen with a big personality and quirky persona when it's asked of him.  Sadly it is not asked of him here and he gets lost in the background even as the light is shining on him in a film crammed with defiant characters (Micky's 7 sisters included - used to excellent comic effect throughout) and he winds up rather forgettable.
Christian Bale has praised this 'quiet' performance for allowing his own performance to work and while it may assist his scene stealing activities but from the opening frame his mesmeric, tempestuous, yet considered performance is a force to be reckoned with and entirely of his own making.  Melissa Leo comes closest to keeping pace yet it is Amy Adam's Charlene, with her single-minded and straight talking manner, that makes for the perfect sparring partner.

For a film immersed in 'loud' acting the soundtrack is likewise brilliantly overwhelming.  Songs blare across dialogue and the decibels reached by the crowd during the fights themselves work more effectively than 3D ever could to make you feel like you're there while the switch between the looks - from film to TV footage for the fights and back again - assists in taking you directly into the viewing experience of the family gathered around the telly.

It does all seem rather familiar, though.  Christian Bale gives a performance worthy of many a re-watch but the film tends to lose impetus when he disappears from the screen.  The family are clearly vintage film material but they are set against the sporting tale it can feel a bit seen-it-all-before despite the good intentions and hard work of cast and crew

See it for Bale, Adams and a great script - 8/10

The King's Speech

"I had to throw a few extra ones in so they knew it was me."

Tom Hooper's dramatisation of Prince Albert/King George VI's struggle with not only his speech impediment but also finding himself suddenly thrust into the royal limelight is a warm, humorous and classy film.

Colin Firth (Oscar-bound, surely?) gives a vanity-free performance; all dry mouthed and infuriated, his Bertie fluctuates between bemusement an frustration at his birth rights, privileges and a country's expectations and needs.  The film offers a fascinating glimpse into the public and private faces of a royal couple forced into a position they did not necessarily expect as Bertie's brother's abdication leaves him in a position he never truly thought he would face, and Firth is genuinely moving in the scenes in which his fears truly begin to show through.
Helena Bonham Carter's regally feisty Elizabeth is a wonderful study in these public and private royal faces.  She brings a great deal of humour to the film, especially in the moments in which she switches from Elizabeth to 'Your Royal Highness' in the blink of an eye.  She brilliantly portrays how, of the two of them, she is oddly more at home with the royal aspects of her life, having been trained rather than born into it.
Geoffrey Rush, however, is the real heart and soul of the film, breaking down Bertie's stubborn disapproval with some gentle stubbornness of his own, slowly but surely creating an environment in which Bertie can finally express himself.

The look of the film is cleverly focused on Bertie's isolation.  He is only truly positioned in the centre of the frame when acting on behalf of the monarchy.  The rest of the time he is unceremoniously squeezed into the side and corners of shots, awkwardly trying to find his place and clearly uncomfortable in his position - both physical and emotional.
Alexandre Desplat's gentle, lilting score aids the tone brilliantly, delivering warm, simple melodies that enhance the light, lyrical feel of the film.

A thoroughly enjoyable watch filled with great performances and pulled together with wonderful cinematography for a very classy film - 9/10

Black Swan

"My sweet girl"

Darren Aronofsky follows up his fantastic 2008 film The Wrestler with another depiction of an artist striving for perfection.  Not only are these films linked by subject but the style is also very similar - handheld camera work, obsessive close-ups of the art itself to the exclusion of everything else and prolonged stalking camera shots of the principal character.

Natalie Portman is ballet dancer Nina Sayers, a girl with perfect technique but not much character as much in life as in her dancing.  Her route to leading roles is fraught with obstacles including the arrival of Lily (Mila Kunis) to the company.
As a whole the film starts rather 'Odette' with introductions to the sweet Nina's oddly innocent homelife and classes with the company she has been loyal to, seemingly without much reward. However, with the introduction of a new production of Swan Lake, we follow the journey from audition to performance around which she is slowly but surely losing her grip on reality, and the picture dissolves into a deranged, breathless 'Odile' of its own.
It is worth noting that Aronofsky sets up Nina's fragile mental state from the very outset of the film, not as a direct response to the casting of the ballet.  A brief glance into the adjoining carriage of her subway car leads her to suspect that there is a girl out there who looks just like her.  This becomes a recurring theme (and special effect) and visually the casting of Mila Kunis as the young pretender and Winona Ryder as the dancer not exactly willingly passing the torch is excellent.  The special effects throughout are well used and quite extraordinary; from the face-replacement creation of doppelgängers to skin conditions and injuries they range from the wonderfully subtle to the truly grotesque.
The same cannot really be said for the film itself.  There is not much subtlety involved in either the script or indeed the acting but that is the beauty of the piece.  All of the feelings of oddness are brought about by the fleeting moments of confusion and paranoia, and outbursts of showy voilence experienced by the central character; a clearly mentally stunted, neurotic young girl.

Natalie Portman is thoroughly convincing and takes herself to some wonderfully extreme places.  The innocent side of Nina can become grating but it does make for an extraordinary alteration as she slides closer and closer to mania. Mila Kunis is excellent as the 'looser' of the two, really embodying the free spirit that Nina could never be.  Barbara Hershey also convinces as Nina's outlandishly pushy mother, veering from oppressively supportive to dangerous.

Black Swan is a film during a viewing of which you shouldn't necessarily engage your brain.  If you fully accept its misgivings you will be taken on one hell of a thrill ride but if there are any niggling doubts you will find it difficult to see past the clunky plot devices, awkward scripting and performance cliches.  For, even though I really enjoyed the film, I have since struggled with the belief that Nina simply wouldn't have been cast in the Odette/Odile role.  No one (not even herself) thinks she can convince as the black swan and it seems highly unreasonable to think that the director would risk the name of his company on a girl he clearly doesn't believe will pull it off.

That aside I genuinely enjoyed the descent into madness (although as the film wore on I did find myself experiencing some crippling performance anxiety as the opening night got closer for Nina) and the manner in which it was achieved.


A terrific, grotesque, grandiose achievement - 9/10